AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Security: The US and 12 Middle East countries agreed in Bahrain to keep commercial shipping moving uninterrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting defense coordination amid ongoing regional tensions. US-Iran Diplomacy: US officials said an aircraft carrier has entered the Middle East, while separate reporting highlights fears that Iran’s top negotiators could be targeted during ceasefire talks. Iran Escalation Signals: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called for massive turnout at Ali Khamenei’s funeral to “avenge” his death, as Bahrain accused Iran of 808 attacks on Gulf civilian infrastructure. Gaza/ Lebanon Frontlines: Israel marked 1,000 days since Oct. 7 with warnings focused on Iran, and reporting from the Syria buffer zone underscored how the threat is shifting beyond Gaza. Energy & Prices: Namibia cut fuel prices from July 3 and overhauled its fuel procurement after a N$1.3bn relief bill, while global energy efficiency pledges from governments at the IEA conference pointed to efficiency as a hedge against future shocks. Connectivity Disruption: Pakistan’s internet saw intermittent problems after a fault in the SEA-ME-WE 5 submarine cable, with traffic rerouted while repairs continue. Markets & Gold: Softer US jobs data lifted gold back above $4,100/oz, easing rate-hike fears. Business & Tech: Landis+Gyr EMEA rebranded as EYKON, and AirTrunk announced major Malaysia data centre expansion (JHB3/JHB4) for AI workloads.

Hormuz Diplomacy & Shipping: US-Iran indirect talks in Doha continued after a fragile interim deal, with mediators saying the next round will be scheduled after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral; analysts warn freight rates won’t snap back overnight, but expect gradual, volatile normalization as tankers and carriers return. Iran Hormuz Warning: Iran’s military warned oil tankers to use approved Hormuz routes and navigation protocols or face “forceful response,” raising renewed risk premiums. US Military Posture: The Wall Street Journal reports CENTCOM is considering relocating operational systems for bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to Israel to reduce vulnerability to Iranian drones and missiles. Regional Politics: Syria’s foreign minister said Damascus is open to meeting Hezbollah “if interests require it,” amid efforts to calibrate alliances after the fall of Assad. Qatar Finance: Franklin Templeton is expanding in the Middle East via a Qatar Financial Centre entity, aiming to deepen Doha’s role as a hub for global asset managers. Business & Infrastructure: Iraq plans to invite bids for remaining Faw port piers; DAMAC topped out its 52-storey Harbour Lights tower in Dubai Maritime City; UAE real estate transactions stayed strong in Q1. Aviation: Cathay Pacific will resume Middle East passenger flights from September. Sanctions: OFAC sanctioned 134 ISIS-K crypto wallet addresses as Tether froze funds.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Iran says it will open a “communication channel” with Washington to report MoU breaches after indirect technical talks in Qatar, as mediators in Doha report “positive progress” toward a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil & Aviation Costs: Oil prices slid on easing supply fears tied to the talks, but IATA warns jet fuel and airfares may stay elevated for months as supply chains take time to normalize. Regional Security Talks: Qatar says US-Iran senior-level meetings are off for now, with discussions expected to stay technical and focus on regional security before any escalation. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s new government faces an early test as raids in Baghdad’s Green Zone detain lawmakers and officials over suspected corruption networks tied to power and oil circles. Lebanon-Gaza Aid: Bulgaria approved €200,000 in humanitarian support for Lebanon and Gaza, while a post-war Gaza governance committee says Cyprus talks were “highly productive” on rebuilding and relief. UK Settlement Pressure: The UK weighs coordinated restrictions on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements, citing “technical difficulties” with allies. Gulf Investment: Gulf sovereign wealth funds set a record first-half pace, deploying $53.9bn despite Iran-war volatility. Economy & Markets: UBS says global wealth is rising fastest in years, but shifting wealth toward real-estate-heavy “diamond” patterns could limit wealth-management opportunities.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Indirect technical talks are set for Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators to turn a US-Iran memorandum into a permanent end to the Middle East war, with US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff meeting Qatar’s PM separately and not joining the technical session. Shipping & Hormuz Risk: A container ship reportedly ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz as negotiations continued, underscoring how route control and fees remain a sticking point. Aviation Safety: EASA warned airlines to avoid Iraq and Lebanon airspace, extending its conflict-zone advisory to July 8 amid uncertainty over escalation. Kuwait Raises Readiness: Kuwait’s Cabinet condemned Iranian aggressions, ordered peak operational readiness, and froze unapproved state consulting contracts. Energy Markets: Shell said 2026 global LNG trade could reach 422 million tonnes if Hormuz normalizes, while oil prices drifted on deal hopes. Finance & Investment: Iraq plans an Energy and Development Fund open to regional and international investors, and Jordan secured a $700m World Bank loan to spur private investment and jobs. Regional Economy: S&P Global said manufacturing output in June grew fastest in 21 months as firms stockpiled amid Middle East trade turmoil. Business & Travel: Gulf carriers are regaining Europe-bound passengers as operations normalize, while some Asian airlines see slower growth.

Israel-Lebanon Front: Netanyahu told troops in southern Lebanon Israel will stay as long as Hezbollah remains a “threat,” after a U.S.-sponsored framework deal that makes withdrawal conditional on Beirut disarming Hezbollah via “pilot zones.” Security Review: Israel is expanding its internal probe beyond Hezbollah drones to a tunnel network along the border, with officials now describing it as a major intelligence failure. US-Iran Talks in Doha: Iran says U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet mediators in Qatar, but no direct high-level meeting is scheduled; technical talks continue, with the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program on the agenda. Strait of Hormuz Impact: The UN warns that even after reopening, higher oil, fertilizer and transport costs will keep hitting vulnerable economies. Energy & Markets: Central banks remain bullish on gold amid geopolitical uncertainty, while markets rally on AI strength and easing energy fears tied to Hormuz transit. Regional Business: Zain won a 25-year Syria telecom license after a $747m bid, with a Q1 2027 launch target; Türkiye and Qatar signed a partnership for the Es’hail-3/Turksat-Biruni satellite project. Drug Enforcement (Iraq): Iraqi forces arrested a drug trafficking “mastermind” and seized 32kg of Captagon near the Arar border crossing with Saudi Arabia.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The Philippines urged restraint after renewed attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, warning the situation could hit global energy and shipping and calling for dialogue to protect the interim peace deal. Energy Markets: Shell said Hormuz disruption could keep 2026 LNG trade flat if normal flows don’t return soon, while still forecasting demand to surge by 2050. Defense & Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Germany’s FM to press safe transit in Hormuz and prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, as both sides also discussed NATO and Russia-Ukraine. Regional Business: QNB Group will sponsor APLMA’s 2026 conference in Singapore, focusing on the Asia–Middle East lending corridor. Transport & Trade: Es’hailSat signed a partnership with Türkiye’s Türksat and a contract with Thales Alenia Space for its next high-throughput satellite, aiming to expand connectivity across MENA and beyond. Local Impact: UK housebuilders face a potential £4.5bn class action over alleged overcharging, with consumer groups linking cost pressures to wider Middle East-driven uncertainty.

U.S.-Iran Talks Under Strain: The U.S. and Iran have paused strikes but are sending mixed signals ahead of renewed talks in Doha, with Iran denying any scheduled U.S. talks while a technical delegation heads to Qatar; Strait of Hormuz Shipping: tanker traffic through Hormuz has dropped as shipowners reassess risk after attacks, even as Middle East oil and LNG loading continues and some vessels “go dark” to reduce exposure; Lebanon Sovereignty Fight: Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri condemned a U.S.-brokered framework involving Israel, warning it could divide Lebanon, while President Joseph Aoun met U.S. CENTCOM to prepare implementation and disarmament steps; Iraq Crackdown: Iraq set a Sept 30 deadline for pro-Iran groups to disarm, as the new government pushes an anti-corruption drive that has detained dozens of senior figures; Regional Security Pressure: Iran is reportedly pressing Baghdad to expel or detain Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan; Markets & Energy: gold and silver slipped as Fed repricing outweighed haven demand, while oil prices bounced cautiously on de-escalation hopes; Diplomacy & Aid: Germany pledged €250m to help Africa and Asia cope with Hormuz-linked fuel and food shocks.

US-Iran Ceasefire Watch: Markets cheered reports of a US-Iran de-escalation and renewed talks, easing Middle East tension fears and lifting US stock futures, while oil volatility remains a risk. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement in Washington, but the big test is whether Lebanon can extend state authority in the south as Hezbollah stays armed. Gaza Health Crisis: At Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, nearly half of dialysis machines are out of service due to shortages, threatening hundreds of kidney patients. Hormuz Shipping & Safety: Iran-linked attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz reportedly left no Filipino crew injured; authorities are monitoring and providing support. Qatar Mediation Critique: An opinion piece argues Qatar can no longer pose as a neutral mediator, citing its stance toward Israel and Lebanon. Energy & Power Moves: Iraq plans contracts for 25GW of new power generation this year; Kuwait’s Al-Na’ayem industrial city is set for 2032 handover. Housing Pressure: UK mortgage approvals fell to the lowest since Dec 2023 as the Iran-linked borrowing-cost shock hits demand. Aviation Connectivity: Philippine Airlines will restart Manila-Dubai nonstop flights from Oct 2 with four weekly services.

US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain: Iran and the US traded strikes again after a fragile interim deal, with Iran firing at US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain and warning ships not to bypass its Hormuz route, while the US hit multiple Iranian targets; Reuters also reported Iran and the US agreed to halt hostilities and renew talks, with a meeting planned in Qatar. Gulf Alarm: The GCC condemned Iran’s drone strikes on Bahrain as “treacherous,” while Italy and other Gulf states urged restraint; Pakistan called for strict adherence to the US-Iran ceasefire as diplomats pushed to keep channels open. Lebanon Flashpoint: Israel detonated a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, despite a US-backed framework agreement, as Hezbollah rejected the deal and fighting risks spilling further. Shipping & Oil Route Chaos: Hapag-Lloyd warned Strait of Hormuz chaos is becoming the “new normal,” even as Iran reportedly restarted crude loading at Kharg Island and some vessels began exiting the gulf. Energy Shock at Home: Saudi Aramco helicopter crash killed 14 near Ras Tanura; separately, Putin acknowledged “certain shortages” of fuel amid Ukrainian strikes. Economy Watch: Economists flagged Middle East-driven inflation and growth risks, while Nepal’s government delayed fuel price cuts despite global oil easing. Humanitarian Angle: UNHCR and Zain marked World Refugee Day in Kuwait, highlighting a decade of support across MENA.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched a second straight night of strikes on Iran after a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and the IRGC said they retaliated with drones and missiles targeting US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, as both sides trade accusations of ceasefire violations and warn talks could collapse. Lebanon Front: Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon after a US-brokered framework deal, but Hezbollah rejected the agreement as “null and void,” raising fears the Lebanon track could derail broader US-Iran diplomacy. Diplomacy & Gulf Security: Iran’s foreign minister called for a new security framework with Gulf states and warned against any changes to the MoU, as China urged an immediate halt to hostilities and reopening of Hormuz. Economy & Inflation: Iran reported June inflation at 88.6% year-on-year, blaming the war’s impact on food and living costs. Energy Markets: With Hormuz traffic disrupted and then partially reopening, crude prices swung on renewed risk, while officials in the region said fuel-price relief may take time to reach consumers. Egypt Business: Korra Energi won a contract for the GennVax Egypt vaccine plant in the Suez Canal zone, part of Egypt’s push to localize vaccine manufacturing. UAE Tech Push: The UAE held a Pax Silica summit in Washington to deepen “trusted” AI supply-chain cooperation with the US and partners. Iraq Governance: Iraqi forces raided Baghdad’s Green Zone, arresting MPs and senior officials in an anti-corruption crackdown.

Israel-Lebanon Framework: EU chief Ursula von der Leyen praised the US-mediated Israel-Lebanon framework, calling it a crucial step to prevent escalation, but the deal hinges on “verified” Hezbollah disarmament and a gradual Israeli withdrawal via two pilot zones. Hezbollah Rejects: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called the pact “null and void,” warning it legitimizes occupation and linking any withdrawal to Hezbollah’s weapons. Netanyahu to Washington: Netanyahu said Israel will send a delegation to the US to press security concerns over any long-term US-Iran nuclear agreement, while insisting Israel will keep a southern Lebanon security zone. US-Iran Escalation: The US launched fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on commercial shipping; Iran accused the US of violating the MoU and warned of wider retaliation. Regional Air Travel: Iran plans to resume direct flights to Dubai from June 30 as Gulf tensions ease, with bookings already reopened. Diplomacy: Pakistan’s deputy PM Ishaq Dar spoke with Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi, reaffirming Islamabad’s role in stability amid the strained ceasefire. Markets & Trade: The US goods trade deficit widened sharply in May as firms rushed imports amid Middle East-linked supply worries.

Iran-US Ceasefire Under Strain: Iran accused the US of violating the June 17 peace framework after Washington carried out strikes on Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites, with Tehran responding by targeting US-linked positions in the Gulf; Bahrain also condemned the attacks, warning they undermine regional de-escalation. Israel-Lebanon Security Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework in Washington aimed at reducing hostilities and setting up pilot security zones, with Rubio calling it “the beginning of the beginning.” Hormuz Tensions and Shipping Risk: The renewed exchange of fire follows accusations over an attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping pressure on efforts to keep the waterway open. World Bank Aid for Bangladesh: The World Bank approved $1.1b for Bangladesh to cushion fertilizer and fuel price shocks tied to the Middle East conflict and protect food security ahead of the Aman and Boro rice seasons. Energy Costs Watch: Pakistan cut jet fuel prices by Rs7.15/litre to Rs231.72, while Cyprus hotel bookings are improving but remain about 20% down for the season.

Israel-Lebanon-US Peace Framework: The US, Israel and Lebanon signed a trilateral framework in Washington, with Marco Rubio calling it a major step toward ending hostilities and restoring Lebanese sovereignty, including a phased process and a US-facilitated military coordination group for Lebanon. Hezbollah Response: Hezbollah was not part of the deal; its spokesperson said it will only comply if Israel fully withdraws, warning “our hands are on our weapons” while occupation continues. US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Escalation: After an Iranian drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon said the US carried out strikes on Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites; Trump called it a “foolish violation” of a ceasefire. Shipping and Travel Fallout: South Korea reported eight more vessels safely transited Hormuz after the ceasefire framework, while Japan lowered travel advisories for seven Middle Eastern countries from Level 3 to Level 2. Energy and Markets: Oil slid on hopes of de-escalation, but the IMF chief economist warned global downside risks if the fragile US-Iran ceasefire fails. EU Energy Rule Warning: Germany warned the EU’s methane import rules could disrupt jet fuel supply, seeking delays or suspensions. Gaza Humanitarian Call: Namibia urged a genuine, sustained ceasefire as Israeli strikes in Gaza continue.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran fired a projectile at a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with US officials saying it was a drone, raising fresh doubts about the fragile US-Iran peace track and the reopening of shipping lanes. US Military Posture: A Wall Street Journal report says the US is considering relocating some operations from the Persian Gulf to Israel after repeated damage to the US Navy base in Bahrain. Inflation Spillover: South Africa’s factory-gate inflation jumped to 7.8% in May as fuel costs surged, while the US PCE inflation measure rose to 4.1%—both linked to Middle East energy price pressures. Policy Signals for Rates: Euro zone consumers cut near-term inflation expectations in an ECB survey, suggesting fewer rate hikes may be needed even as uncertainty remains elevated. Regional Diplomacy: UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi said Iran’s nuclear pledge needs “very strong” verification, as negotiations continue. Energy Markets: Oil prices fell again as supply worries eased and peace hopes grew, even with intermittent Hormuz disruption. Business & Trade: Goldman Sachs upgraded India’s growth outlook after the US-Iran peace deal, while easyJet rejected a third takeover offer from Castlelake, citing conflict-hit share prices.

Israel-Lebanon Talks: Israel says it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed and demilitarised, as US-mediated talks in Washington near a “commitment of intent.” Hormuz Shipping Risk: The UN’s IMO paused evacuation of about 11,000 mariners after an attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman; the incident comes as oil prices rebound on renewed safety worries. US-Iran Deal Limits: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio tells Gulf allies any Iran deal must protect their security and rejects Strait of Hormuz tolls, warning they’d trigger “total chaos.” Gulf Diplomacy: GCC and US foreign ministers meet in Bahrain, stressing maritime security and free navigation through Hormuz while urging any Iran arrangements to reflect GCC interests. Qatar Mediation: Analysts credit Qatar’s diplomacy with helping secure a US-Iran ceasefire and reopening Hormuz for shipping. Energy Markets: China’s state refiners consider resuming Iranian oil purchases after a US waiver, but competition and weaker demand may limit uptake. Humanitarian/Christian Holy Land: Archbishops warn of an “existential” challenge facing Christians in the Holy Land amid ongoing conflict.

US-Iran diplomacy and Hormuz: Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Gulf leaders in Bahrain, stressing any Iran deal must protect allies and insisting the US will not accept tolls on international waterways; he warned Iranian charges could “spread like contagion.” Regional security talks: GCC and US officials held high-level discussions in Bahrain on regional security, navigation through Hormuz, and stability in Syria and Lebanon. Oil markets ease: Brent slid to around $72 as investors bet Middle East tensions are easing, lifting crude-sensitive stocks in India and pushing expectations of lower fuel costs. Lebanon ceasefire strain: An Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon killed two people, with Hezbollah calling it a truce violation. Egypt fertiliser policy: Egypt replaced a fixed nitrogen export tax with a 10% ad valorem duty, exempting high-purity ammonium nitrate. UAE projects: DEWA is expected to award the Jebel Ali “G” sewage treatment plant contract in Q3 2026. Business and finance: Dubai’s DFSA reported 16% growth in regulated entities in 2025; Standard Chartered said it will explore selling its Ghana retail and wealth business after 130 years. Energy and industry: Misr Cement Qena plans alternative fuel and solar investments at its Qena and Minya plants.