AGP Executive Report

Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Trump says the “Board of Peace” reached a historic deal for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups, with phased steps toward a new Palestinian government and an IDF withdrawal, while Hamas officials also confirm the agreement and cite Egypt, Qatar and Turkey as mediators. US-Iran Escalation: After a five-night pause, the US launched another wave of strikes on Iran, with Iran reporting civilian deaths on Qeshm Island; the fighting has widened into Jordan and Kuwait and is raising fresh worries about missile supplies. Egypt on Alert: Egypt is analyzing drone fragments from a Damietta port strike and warns against escalation after the attack hit gas vessels, including a US-owned one. Shipping & Energy Pressure: QatarEnergy bought emergency US LNG cargoes after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, highlighting how fast LNG supply chains can shift when Middle East routes are hit. Regional Security: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and 12 others formed a maritime defence coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. Markets & Inflation: Japan’s Tokyo core inflation accelerated to 1.9% in July, with analysts linking the pickup to Middle East-driven energy costs; South Korea’s finance minister also warned of volatility tied to the prolonged Middle East war.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched a “powerful” new wave of strikes on Iran after attacks on American forces, as fighting widens across the region and markets reprice risk. Aviation Disruptions: International airlines extended Middle East flight suspensions amid strikes and drone attacks; Air France and KLM adjusted schedules and avoided key airspace. Egypt Port Attack: Egypt’s cabinet said a drone caused a fire at Damietta port, damaging LNG-related vessels; operations continued while investigations go on. Hormuz Pressure: Iran’s IRGC reiterated it controls the Strait of Hormuz and warned it can’t be reopened if US threats continue. Diplomacy Effort: Pakistan said it is pushing to revive US-Iran talks under the Islamabad MOU, with technical talks urged amid a fragile Gulf security picture. Regional Fallout: The OECD warned the Middle East war is denting global growth, with a worse outlook if no ceasefire comes before 2027. Economy & Energy: Shell profits surged on higher oil prices tied to the conflict, while air cargo demand rose 8.5% in June even as passenger demand fell 1.7%. Sports/Entertainment: The NBA scrapped plans for Middle East preseason games due to the crisis.

US-Iran Escalation: Iran fired missiles at US forces in the Middle East as the US and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers; the flare-up after a brief lull raised fears of a wider war. Egypt Energy Flashpoint: A drone hit a US-owned gas storage tanker at Egypt’s Damietta port, triggering fires on vessels; Egypt confirmed a blaze but did not say who was responsible. New US Strikes: After intercepting Iran’s “surprise” missile attack, CENTCOM said the US launched “powerful” retaliatory strikes on Iran, with Trump warning it would be “very hard.” Strait of Hormuz Pressure: CENTCOM highlighted assets enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports while keeping navigation through the Strait open, as oil markets reacted. Markets & Inflation: Oil surged on renewed fighting, while the US Fed held rates steady (3.50–3.75%) despite dissent, adding inflation pressure. Regional Diplomacy Signals: Reports cited attempts to cool tensions, but the latest exchanges show talks remain fragile.

US-Iran Escalation: Iran launched a “surprise” ballistic missile barrage at U.S. forces in the Middle East; CENTCOM says all missiles were intercepted, while U.S. and Saudi strikes hit Iran-backed groups in Iraq after drone attacks. Regional Fallout: Iraq’s PM called an urgent security council meeting after the strikes, as Iran condemned the U.S.-Saudi action as a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty. Open-Source Security: CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper warned troops that cellphone and social-media videos can help Iran assess attacks in near real time, with Reuters reporting some personnel in Jordan may be ordered to surrender phones. Energy Shock: Oil jumped sharply—Brent up about 5%—as renewed fighting revived supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz. Lebanon Pilot Zone: A Lebanon-U.S.-Israel redeployment plan is already strained by incidents, with Israel’s actions and continued attacks undermining the timeline. Business/Markets: Wall Street opened lower ahead of the Fed, while airlines and other firms weigh higher jet-fuel and disruption risks.

US-Iran Missile Crisis: Iran launched an “attempted surprise attack” with multiple ballistic missiles toward U.S. forces in the Middle East; CENTCOM says all missiles were intercepted, while the brief lull in fighting ended. US-Saudi Retaliation in Iraq: The U.S. and Saudi forces struck Iran-aligned targets in eastern Iraq after drone attacks on U.S. and Saudi energy infrastructure, with CENTCOM warning of further action if attacks continue. Diplomacy vs Escalation: Trump said he paused strikes to allow negotiations, but the missile launch and follow-on strikes show talks remain fragile, with Netanyahu meeting Trump amid the renewed pressure. Oil and Markets: Fresh Middle East attacks pushed oil prices back up above $100, lifting inflation worries and rattling currencies and risk sentiment ahead of the Fed decision. Regional Spillover: South Korea is weighing possible military support for Hormuz security, while maritime disruption concerns grow as shipping faces higher costs and risks. Philippines Cost of Conflict: Marcos’ claimed fuel rollbacks were followed by another weekly rise in diesel, gasoline, and kerosene prices, adding to imported inflation pressures. Tax Relief Push: In Manila, Senate President Pro Tempore Sotto filed a bill to raise the income tax exemption threshold to P350,000 from 2027, citing wage hikes and inflation pressures.

Middle East De-escalation Watch: Mediators say progress is being made to restart US-Iran talks, with a pause in strikes for three days, but drone and militia attacks elsewhere keep the region tense. Oil & Shipping: Oil prices slid for a third straight day as the informal US-Iran restraint eased pressure on crude and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Red Sea disruption and insurance curbs continue to reshape routes. Regional Security: Iran-backed militias are again using Iraq to target neighbors, with attacks reported against Saudi Arabia and the Kurdistan Region, raising wider spillover fears. Diplomacy at the Top: US President Trump is set to meet Netanyahu and Zelenskyy in Washington as regional wars intensify and questions grow over US munitions and priorities. Finance & Inflation: A Reuters poll warns persistently high inflation may linger as Middle East conflict drags on growth, while global central banks weigh policy decisions amid energy-price risk. Local Economy Ripple: Westpac in New Zealand raised mortgage-related rates after Middle East-driven funding pressures, and India is reportedly planning to buy up to a quarter of LPG from the US by 2027 to reduce Middle East supply dependence. Gulf Business: Dubai International Financial Centre logged record company growth in H1 despite Iran-war uncertainty, underscoring continued investor pull.

US-Iran Pause & Markets: Iran suspended strikes on U.S. targets after two nights without American attacks, while Trump said there’s a “good chance” of a negotiated deal; Tehran denies direct talks but says retaliation would resume if the U.S. strikes again. Oil slid about 1% as investors priced in calmer Middle East energy flows, with Brent and WTI both down and shipping risks easing. Shipping Chokepoints: Traffic diverged sharply: Hormuz crossings dropped heavily as tanker routes shifted, while activity stayed steadier through Bab al-Mandab—raising questions about how long the lull lasts. Saudi Energy Security: A drone strike triggered a major fire at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery, with Riyadh blaming Iran-backed groups in Iraq and warning of potential global supply disruption. Regional Spillover to Costs: In the Philippines, Marcos’ SONA highlighted steps to cushion the oil shock, including fuel purchases and tax relief proposals; fuel retailers there signaled another round of price hikes tied to Middle East tensions. Policy & Economy: Pakistan’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.5% citing renewed Middle East conflict risks, even as it projected FY27 growth of 3.5–4.5%. Investment Signals: Brookfield raised about $2bn for a Middle East private equity fund anchored by Saudi PIF, while oil services firms warned the conflict is reshaping spending and logistics costs.

US-Iran De-escalation Watch: Mediators say Qatar and Pakistan are making progress to restart US-Iran talks after three days with no reported strikes, as Washington keeps a pause while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and shipping risk stays high. Oil & Markets: The lull helped drag Brent and WTI down sharply and lifted risk appetite; gold climbed as oil eased and investors looked ahead to central bank decisions, while the dollar softened. Saudi-Iran Proxy Tensions: Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities reportedly shattered parts of a Yemen truce, keeping Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb shipping in focus. Regional Finance & Trade: Kuwait Oil Company signed a $16bn lease-and-leaseback for its pipeline network; Saudia Cargo launched a Riyadh–Melbourne freighter route to boost Middle East-Australia trade; and the US Ex-Im backed a $15bn Saudi PIF partnership framework. Middle East Spillovers: S&P cut Bangladesh’s outlook to negative, citing banking stress and energy costs tied to the Middle East war; and in the Philippines, President Marcos’ SONA highlighted tax relief and fuel-price measures aimed at cushioning the crisis’ economic hit. Culture & Heritage: UNESCO added six new Middle East/North Africa sites, including UAE’s Wadi Wurayah and Palestine’s Sebastia.

US-Iran De-escalation: The US paused its Iran strike campaign for a second straight day as Iran said it would halt attacks if Washington does, easing pressure on Gulf shipping and oil markets. Red Sea Risk: Even with the Gulf lull, Yemen’s Houthis hit Saudi oil installations, keeping fears of a wider Middle East front alive. Oil & Inflation Spillover: Oil slid after the pause, but the volatility is still feeding inflation worries and rate decisions across the region, from Singapore’s MAS tightening to fuel-price caps in South Korea. Policy & Markets: MAS raised its S$NEER appreciation band slightly; South Korea’s Lee ordered oil price caps kept until uncertainty fades; Asia stocks bounced on the oil drop. Nuclear Deal Fallout: A reported US-Saudi nuclear cooperation plan is drawing sharp US political backlash, with concerns it could undermine nonproliferation and spark an arms race. West Bank Violence: Israeli settlers set fire to mosques in the occupied West Bank after deadly clashes, as tensions continue to flare. Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila warned the Middle East crisis is straining regional energy and food stability, while pushing for dialogue.

Fighting & Diplomacy: Iran says it has halted retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Middle East after Washington paused strikes for two nights, while Tehran warns any US restart could widen the war across the region. US-Iran Stakes: Reports link Trump’s decision to hold back escalation to concerns about dwindling Patriot interceptor and air-defense stocks, as advisers urge caution amid fears of a broader regional conflict. Regional Fronts: The lull comes as tensions spill beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran warning of wider disruption and analysts watching for new flashpoints, including in maritime areas. Lebanon Focus: A debate over Lebanon’s future centers on whether Hezbollah can be constrained or disarmed without triggering another civil war, as Israel weighs buffer-zone plans and Iran keeps backing the group. Pope’s Call: Pope Leo XIV urged parties across the Middle East to suspend attacks and reopen negotiations, warning civilians face worsening shortages of water and electricity. Gulf Politics: Egypt’s FM spoke by phone with Kuwait’s counterpart to discuss de-escalation and condemned attacks on Kuwait’s security. F1 Disruption: Bahrain’s Grand Prix is back on the 2026 calendar but moved to Malaysia’s Sepang Circuit on Oct 2–4, as Middle East uncertainty forces schedule reshuffles. Energy & Markets: Oil and shipping risks continue to rattle prices and demand, while Dubai real estate activity cools amid the conflict.

US-Iran Tensions: Trump shelved plans for wider Iran strikes after Pentagon advisers warned of dwindling Patriot interceptor munitions, with officials citing risks to US troops and Gulf partners. Houthis-Saudi Escalation: Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, targeting Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan after Saudi strikes on Hodeida, while the group threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi-linked shipping. Maritime Pressure: CENTCOM said the US blockade against Iran remains in full effect, disabling non-compliant vessels and redirecting 12 commercial ships. Diplomacy Pause: Reports say the US halted strikes for a night as Oman and Qatar push a diplomatic pause, with Iran claiming no overnight attacks. Regional Fallout: Oil and gold jumped again on renewed Middle East risk, feeding fresh fuel-price worries. Politics & Security: Trump said Netanyahu will visit Washington next week as regional security coordination intensifies. Travel Warnings: The US State Department renewed advisories for Americans across the Middle East, warning of flight disruptions and possible airspace closures.

US-Iran Escalation: The US kept up strikes on Iran for a 13th straight night as Trump weighed a “massive attack,” while Iran’s Guards warned civilians near US forces to stay away. Red Sea & Yemen Front: Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jizan after Saudi strikes hit Hodeidah, raising fears of more disruption to Red Sea shipping. Gulf Shipping Pressure: Strait of Hormuz traffic thinned sharply, with shiptracking showing only one tanker crossing on July 23, while Bab el-Mandeb crossings stayed active but volatile. Oil & Inflation: Brent slid back under $100 after topping it on escalation fears, but markets remain jittery; fuel costs are rising and inflation worries are back. Regional Diplomacy: Australia eased travel advice for several Gulf states after a temporary US-Iran agreement, though it urged postponing non-essential trips. Energy Deals: Kuwait signed a $16bn lease deal for crude pipelines, and OPEC signaled more supply as prices swing. Human Impact: UN Women/ESCWA warned the crisis could endanger millions of jobs for women across Arab states. Israel-Palestinian West Bank: Israeli raids in Jenin detained about 50 Palestinians. Culture & Society: Canva says it has no formal PIA partnership yet for a Pakistan design competition.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded more strikes for a 13th straight night, with Washington firing on a merchant vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports while Iran hit US-linked bases around the Persian Gulf; Trump again said he’s “locked and loaded” but still weighing options as diplomacy remains uncertain. Red Sea Fallout: Saudi Arabia struck Yemen’s Hodeida after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, while the Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi ships—raising shipping insurance costs and fears of a wider chokepoint squeeze. Nuclear Deal Pressure: Washington conditioned a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, warning the deal is “off” without normalization with Israel. Talks via Pakistan/China: Pakistan explored a path to restart stalled US-Iran talks, with China backing the effort, though obstacles remain high. Markets & Daily Life: Oil pushed back above $100 before retreating, fueling inflation worries across Europe and beyond; fuel prices are expected to rise again locally as supply risks spread. Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN adopted the Manila Plan of Action for 2026-36, urging proactive risk management amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.

US-Iran Escalation: Explosive drones hit northern Iraq’s Erbil as sirens sounded in Bahrain, amid the US completing a 13th straight night of strikes on Iran; Iran says it retaliated with drone attacks on US facilities across the region. Shipping & Energy Shock: Tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to near-record lows, while Red Sea attacks on Saudi tankers pushed Brent back above $100, reviving inflation fears. Nuclear Deal Fallout: Washington says the US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation is “off” unless Saudi joins the Abraham Accords, stoking warnings of a Middle East arms race. Regional Diplomacy: China’s Wang Yi met Egypt’s FM Badr Abdelatty in Manila, while Rubio urged Iran to make a deal as pressure rises. Cybersecurity Pressure: Mastercard warns Middle East cyberattacks rose 13% and breach costs are high, as geopolitical spikes drive faster attacks. Saudi Digital Push: Saudi Arabia topped MENA for digital government services in ESCWA’s GEMS index for a fourth straight year. Business & Markets: Oil at $100 and tariff talk rattled global markets; India’s activity slowed as West Asia tensions weigh on demand.

Energy Shock: Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel again as US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea raised fears of supply disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping & Security: The Bab el-Mandeb route faced renewed strain after reports of a Houthi blockade threat, while Iran warned it would keep striking if attacked. US Politics: The US House passed a war powers resolution urging Trump to end the Iran war after four US troops were killed, signaling growing congressional pushback. Nuclear Deal Fallout: Trump said the US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement is “totally subject” to Saudi joining the Abraham Accords, a new condition that could complicate implementation. Regional Impact: Kuwait faced fresh anxiety after strikes hit power and desalination infrastructure, while the wider conflict is feeding inflation fears and higher fuel costs. Local Costs: In the US, diesel prices are hitting commercial fishing and boating, showing how Middle East tensions ripple into everyday livelihoods. Diplomacy Warning: UN chief Guterres warned the region is edging toward “the unimaginable,” urging a return to diplomacy.

US-Iran Escalation & Shipping Risk: Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as the US carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran, pushing Brent toward $100 and reviving fears of wider disruption across Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Diplomacy in Focus: At the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, top diplomats including Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov urged renewed efforts to ease the Middle East crisis, while Rubio told Asian allies the US won’t abandon them amid talks with China. Nuclear Deal Fallout: Trump said the US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement requires Saudi normalization with Israel and no enrichment under the pact, as Israeli opposition warned it could spark a regional arms race. Markets & Policy: The ECB held rates at 2.25% but flagged Middle East energy shocks as inflation risks; oil-driven pressure also hit airlines, with easyJet reporting a 70% profit plunge tied to higher fuel costs. Regional Politics: Pakistan and Oman called for upholding a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and strict respect for international law. Local Impact: In the Philippines, government savings were earmarked to expand aid for vulnerable groups affected by the Middle East crisis.