US-Iran Escalation: Despite a looming US-Iran MoU to end the war, the two sides traded strikes again, with Iran saying the ceasefire is “meaningless” and reports of an attack killing three Indian mariners, underscoring how fast the Middle East can slide back toward full-scale conflict. Lebanon Tensions: At the G7, Trump criticized Israel’s Lebanon tactics, saying civilians are being killed and “they’re not all Hezbollah,” as Israel strikes continued even after de-escalation efforts. Diplomacy via Qatar: Gulf and other ambassadors praised Qatar’s mediation, saying the US-Iran MoU includes steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring freedom of navigation. Energy Shock Watch: The IEA warned OECD oil stocks are at the lowest since 1990 as governments draw down reserves, while it expects a major supply surplus in 2027 after Hormuz recovery—though physical markets may stay tight for months. Shipping Signals: Tankers carrying Iranian oil reportedly passed the US blockade after the framework deal, hinting at a gradual return of exports. Regional Economics: Central banks and businesses are already feeling the spillover, with South Korea’s inflation outlook tied to Middle East-linked energy costs and Thailand’s industrial confidence sliding on higher energy prices. Gulf Capital Markets: HSBC’s GCC Exchanges conference in London drew 300+ investors and highlighted investor appetite for GCC diversification amid ongoing volatility.